In Six Central European Countries, the Absolute Majority Expects a Prolonged War

In the past twelve months in Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, North Macedonia, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Hungary too, the number of respondents who believe that the war would carry on in the next couple of years significantly increased. 

According to the research conducted by CEPER, in 9 out of 12 Central European countries, more respondents brace for a long war between Russia and Ukraine than a year ago. 

In January 2023, in neither of the studied countries were there more than 46% of respondents believed that the conflict would last for the years to come. However, ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in January 2024, in half of the studied countries between 51 to 63% of respondents expect the war to drag on for years. 

Respondents from Serbia last year were the most confident (62 percent) that hostilities will end by the end of 2023, and in January 2024, only 42 percent of our fellow citizens believe that a truce or peace will be reached by December this year, while 35 percent of them claim that the war will last for years. 

24 February 2024 marks the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. Two years after the beginning of the conflict 12 countries in Central Europe were polled about their expectations with regards to the end of the Russan-Ukrainian war. 

Differently from most regional countries, in 2024 in Romania, Montenegro, and Bulgaria the percentage of respondents who expected the war to finish by the end of this year did not decrease compared to the survey done a year ago. 

Contrary to these three, in the remaining 9 studied countries respondents are now less inclined to accept the possibility of ceasing hostilities soon – the sentiment that the conflict will carry on for a long time strengthened in the region. In 2024 Czechs and Austrians are the least prone to agree with the possibility that the hostilities can end soon, with 63% of them expecting the war to drag on for the years to come. Twelve months ago, in none of the countries studied the absolute majority of respondents expected a long war. Now, however, in Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Poland, Slovenia, and Hungary, more than half of respondents expect the war to drag on in the coming years. Moods strengthened in favour of this position in North Macedonia too – last year 29% this year 34% of respondents expected a long war. 

In 2023 in 8 of the surveyed countries, no less than 40% of respondents believed that the conflict could be resolved within a year. This year, however, in 9 of the countries less than 36% of respondents believe that the conflict can be ended by late 2024. In short, Central Europe awaits the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion with bracing for a long war.